The Pandemic’s Impact on Students’ Postsecondary Decisions: Part 1

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an educational system rife with inequitable access to resources and insufficient support needed to overcome barriers already contributing to existing opportunity gaps (Causey et al., 2021; Recovery with Equity Taskforce, 2021). The effect of COVID19 in communities of color revealed what many educators already knew – educational opportunity is interwoven with wealth and privilege (Hines et al., 2021). As highlighted below, the decrease in direct high school to college enrollment continues to be staggering, with the most disproportionately impacted high school graduates attending low-income, high poverty, and high minority schools 
(National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2020; 2021).

Class of 2019

• 26.1% chose not to return to college for their sophomore year

Class of 2020

• Students who attended low income and high minoritized high schools submitted fewer college and FAFSA applications
• Overall direct high school to college enrollment dropped 6.8%
• The biggest drop in enrollment was noted among students intending to enroll in community college
• Low-income high schools saw a 10.7% college enrollment decrease, compared to 4.6 percent for students enrolled in higher income schools.
• Enrollment for students transitioning from high poverty schools fell by 11.4 percent versus 2.9 percent for low-poverty schools.
• High minoritized schools saw an overall enrollment decline of 9.4 percent, while enrollment from low minoritized schools decreased by 4.8 percent
• 2% of the disengaged class of 2020 re-enrolled during fall 2021

Class of 2021

• Completed fewer Free Application for Federal Student Aid and Common Applications (FAFSA).
• Direct high school to college enrollment for the class of 2021 fell an additional 2.7%
• The biggest drop in retention to sophomore year was among community college students 

Today’s college bound students are facing the largest declines in college enrollment in recent history, and for the most part, students are heading into uncharted territory. As school disruptions, health risks, and economic impacts wage on, especially for BIPOC communities, many students’ postsecondary plans continue to be altered with opportunities seemingly diminishing right in front of their eyes. A growing number of educational leaders fear that a crisis of disruption has quickly become a crisis of disengagement (STRADA, 2021). We cannot lose a generation of talented youth because of a worldwide pandemic. 

Covid Melt

“Summer Melt” is a well-established phenomenon in higher education and refers to the significant number of high school seniors intending to enroll in college, who do not show up to campus the semester following high school graduation 
(Castleman & Paige, 2014). Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to address summer melt and stem the loss of academically prepared, talented and committed students from the educational pipeline (Oreopoulos et al, 2020; Page et al., 2020). Alarmingly, summer melt statistics for the class of 2020 and 2021 dwarf the highest numbers seen prior to the pandemic, moving many to refer to the current loss in enrollment as “covid melt”

The on-going COVID pandemic serves as a reminder of how fragile and inequitable our systems of support are and raises an urgent call to action to ensure minoritized, lower income and under-resourced communities have the support needed for successful transitions to postsecondary opportunities. We have witnessed years of gains established through educational policies, national efforts, and best practices at the institutional level, yet these have been insufficient to withstand the barriers imposed by an ongoing pandemic. We stand at a crossroads, one ripe for new approaches and models centered on feedback and recommendations from the students and families most impacted by the pandemic.

Swift and Urgent Needs

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to influence students’ postsecondary decisions and we must commit to seek out their input, listen to their concerns, and collaborate on solutions. We are beginning to more fully understand the unique challenges faced by each high school graduating class and their needs, while similar, have some nuance.

Class of 2019 (Research here)

• 71% experienced increased stress and anxiety due to the pandemic
• 91% feared and worried about their own health of their family
• 89% had difficulty concentrating
• 86% reported disruptions in sleeping patterns
• 86% noted decreased social interactions
• 82% discussed increased academic performance concerns
• Students found online classes to be highly distracting due to a lack of class-engagement and prolonged attention to a computer screen.